NFL Wins Pool Update
Last updated September 30, 2025
Standings
| Rank | Team | Wins | Remaining Games | Win % | Win % Rank | Projected Wins (FPI) | Projected Rank (FPI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Creaser | 9 | 39 | 75.0% | 1 | 30.7 | 1 |
| 2 | Matt McEwan | 8 | 39 | 66.7% | 2 | 28.7 | 2 |
| 3 | Karl Loiseau | 7 | 39 | 58.3% | 3 | 26.5 | 5 |
| 3 | Andrew Batchelor | 7 | 39 | 58.3% | 3 | 27.3 | 3 |
| 5 | Andrew Moeller | 6 | 39 | 50.0% | 5 | 26.7 | 4 |
| 5 | Mike Thorne | 6 | 39 | 50.0% | 5 | 25.8 | 6 |
| 5 | Luke Phelan | 6 | 39 | 50.0% | 5 | 23.5 | 8 |
| 8 | Nick Boucher | 5 | 39 | 41.7% | 8 | 23.0 | 10 |
| 8 | Matt Hogel | 5 | 39 | 41.7% | 8 | 24.1 | 7 |
| 10 | Dan Ellenberger | 4 | 39 | 33.3% | 10 | 23.5 | 8 |
- Projected wins taken from ESPN FPI projections.
Expanded Standings
| Team | Wins |
Projected Wins |
Next Opponent |
Win Probability in Next Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Creaser | ||||
| Philadelphia Eagles | 4 | 11.8 | DEN | 0.66 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 3 | 9.9 | LV | 0.72 |
| New England Patriots | 2 | 9.0 | BUF | 0.23 |
| Matt McEwan | ||||
| Buffalo Bills | 4 | 12.4 | NE | 0.77 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 3 | 9.7 | TB | 0.61 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 1 | 6.6 | IND | 0.28 |
| Andrew Batchelor | ||||
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 3 | 9.6 | KC | 0.38 |
| Denver Broncos | 2 | 9.0 | PHI | 0.34 |
| Washington Commanders | 2 | 8.7 | LAC | 0.41 |
| Karl Loiseau | ||||
| Los Angeles Rams | 3 | 10.4 | SF | 0.69 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 2 | 8.1 | TEN | 0.77 |
| Chicago Bears | 2 | 8.0 | – | |
| Andrew Moeller | ||||
| Detroit Lions | 3 | 11.1 | CIN | 0.81 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 2 | 8.3 | – | |
| Dallas Cowboys | 1 | 7.3 | NYJ | 0.61 |
| Luke Phelan | ||||
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 3 | 9.7 | – | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3 | 10.0 | SEA | 0.39 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0 | 3.8 | ARI | 0.23 |
| Mike Thorne | ||||
| Los Angeles Chargers | 3 | 10.6 | WAS | 0.59 |
| Green Bay Packers | 2 | 9.9 | – | |
| New York Giants | 1 | 5.3 | NO | 0.45 |
| Matt Hogel | ||||
| San Francisco 49ers | 3 | 10.5 | LA | 0.31 |
| Houston Texans | 1 | 7.1 | BAL | 0.38 |
| Miami Dolphins | 1 | 6.5 | CAR | 0.45 |
| Nick Boucher | ||||
| Cincinnati Bengals | 2 | 6.5 | DET | 0.19 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 2 | 10.2 | JAX | 0.62 |
| Cleveland Browns | 1 | 6.3 | MIN | 0.34 |
| Dan Ellenberger | ||||
| Minnesota Vikings | 2 | 7.8 | CLE | 0.66 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 1 | 9.5 | HOU | 0.62 |
| Carolina Panthers | 1 | 6.2 | MIA | 0.55 |
- Win probability calculated from covers.com odds
Weekly Head-to-Heads
Leverage measured by:
* Circles to the top right are games between people closest to first
place
* Bigger circles indicate games that are more likely to be closely
contested
Strength of Schedule in the coming weeks
Draft Analysis
| Team | Wins |
Draft Spot |
Expected Wins |
Performance vs. Expectation |
Better Choices |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Creaser | |||||
| Philadelphia Eagles | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| New England Patriots | 2 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 3 | 25 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Matt McEwan | |||||
| Buffalo Bills | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 3 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 1 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Karl Loiseau | |||||
| Los Angeles Rams | 3 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 2 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Chicago Bears | 2 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Andrew Batchelor | |||||
| Denver Broncos | 2 | 9 | 3 | -1 | 5 |
| Washington Commanders | 2 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 3 | 23 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Andrew Moeller | |||||
| Detroit Lions | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 1 | 19 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 2 | 22 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Mike Thorne | |||||
| Green Bay Packers | 2 | 7 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 3 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| New York Giants | 1 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Phelan | |||||
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 3 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0 | 24 | 1 | -1 | 6 |
| Nick Boucher | |||||
| Kansas City Chiefs | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 2 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Cleveland Browns | 1 | 30 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Matt Hogel | |||||
| San Francisco 49ers | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Houston Texans | 1 | 15 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| Miami Dolphins | 1 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dan Ellenberger | |||||
| Baltimore Ravens | 1 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 19 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 2 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Carolina Panthers | 1 | 29 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Draft Results
